TREE NEWS reports: UK 30-year gilt yields fell 23.5 basis points over October to 5.714%, while 50-year yields dropped 24.3 bps to 5.123%, with both trending lower through the month. The 10-year yield slipped 1 bp on Friday to 5.284%, bringing its October decline to 14.0 bps. Two-year yields fell 3.1 bps to 4.867% on the day and 2 bps over the month, after a V-shaped reversal in the first 20 days of October.
UK 30-year gilt yield falls 23.5 bps in October; 10-year down 14 bps
The striking feature is the curve: long-dated gilts rallied far harder than the front end, with the 30-year falling more than ten times as much as the 2-year over October. That points to term-premium and duration demand rather than a repricing of near-term policy expectations, which barely moved. The 2-year's V-shaped path suggests rate expectations whipsawed before settling, while the long end ground steadily lower. Whether the long-end outperformance persists as the front end stabilizes is the open question, and the shape of the curve, not the headline level, is where the signal sits.
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