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Macro US Stocks

US Midterms in Final 36 Hours: What It Means for Stocks and Bitcoin

US 2026 midterm results are due November 3 local time, with prediction markets putting a Democratic sweep of both chambers at 72%, including a 95% chance of taking the House and 73% the Senate. Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson said the S&P 500 could fall about 9% to 7,100 on midterm, AI-spending and liquidity risks before rebounding to 8,000, while CITIC Securities sees a post-election tech rebound.

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AI take

The striking element is the gap between prediction-market pricing and the tempered sell-side framing: a Democratic sweep is treated as the base case, yet strategists are still debating whether the equity path is a dip before a rebound or a genuine repricing of AI-spending and liquidity risk. That divergence matters because it shifts the near-term conversation from election outcome to positioning around it, with tech exposure the common thread across both views. Whether prediction-market odds firm up or unwind in the final hours, and how bitcoin trades against that same risk backdrop, is the open question.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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