RBA Expected to Raise Cash Rate 25bp to 18-Year High of 4.85%

The signal here is less the widely anticipated move than the guidance that follows it: whether the RBA frames further tightening as live or closes the door matters more for rate-sensitive assets than the hike itself. The emphasis on rising inflation expectations alongside falling participation suggests the bank sees less slack than the headline jobs data implies, which affects the credibility of any pause. For crypto and RWA markets, the open question is whether Australian tightening reinforces the higher-for-longer narrative globally or stays a domestic story.