$6.4B Bitcoin Options Expire Tomorrow—Max Pain Below Spot

The sheer size of this expiry relative to open interest makes it a liquidity event that could temporarily distort price action, especially with max pain below spot. The gap between market price and the pain level suggests options market makers may have incentives to guide price lower toward settlement, but the actual impact depends on how much positioning is already hedged. This matters most to short-term traders and derivatives desks, who face elevated gamma risk. The key is whether realized volatility expands into the close or if the divergence merely reflects stale positioning that unwinds cleanly.