Bank of England raises rates 25bp to 4%, first hike in over three years

The significance here is less the size of the move than the guidance attached to it: an eight-to-one split with a dissent for a larger hike, plus a governor explicitly tying the path to a geopolitical resolution, signals a committee still leaning restrictive rather than pausing. The upward revision to inflation peaking next year, set against slightly better growth forecasts, suggests the central bank sees price pressure outlasting the economy's softness — a combination that keeps rate-sensitive sectors, from credit to property to yield-bearing crypto and tokenized RWA products, exposed to a higher-for-longer backdrop. Whether the committee's hawkish tilt holds if the conflict resolves is the open question.