Deutsche Bank: US Not Yet in Crisis ‘Red Zone,’ But Nears It by 2028

The signal worth noting is the financing shift: AI capex moving from internal cash flow to external debt changes who carries the risk and how it transmits through credit markets. Deutsche Bank's framework is probabilistic, not predictive, so the 2028 horizon is a conditional path rather than a forecast. The open question is whether corporate debt-to-GDP keeps climbing alongside equity gains, since the framework's thresholds only matter in combination.