EU climate monitor: 2026 almost certain to exceed 1.5C warming threshold

The significance here is not a single hot month but the shift from an aspirational 1.5C ceiling to a level the climate system is now tracking as routine, which reframes how physical risk gets priced across markets. Copernicus is the reference monitor for that framing, so its language carries weight well beyond scientific circles. For RWA and infrastructure-linked assets, the open question is whether repeated threshold breaches start feeding into disclosure and underwriting assumptions rather than being treated as a one-off. Whether 2026 marks a durable break from the pre-industrial baseline is what to watch.