Swap markets price 32% odds of Bank of Canada December rate hike, down from 40%

The move in implied odds is the story here: a single employment release shifted swap-market positioning by a meaningful margin, which suggests traders are treating labor data as the primary input for the Bank of Canada's next move. That sensitivity cuts both ways — it means the odds can reprice just as quickly on the next data point. The open question is whether the softening in hike expectations reflects a durable reassessment of the tightening path or just a knee-jerk reaction to one release, and whether other indicators confirm the same direction.