On-chain analysis finds no strong evidence Polymarket trader front-ran polls

The on-chain record complicates the front-running narrative: large speculative and DeFi activity plus holding election positions to settlement is not the profile of a trader cashing out on leaked poll data. The unresolved detail is the reported betting roughly ten minutes after a Nebraska poll's release, which is why experts stop short of exoneration and Polymarket's investigation remains open. What matters for prediction-market credibility is whether that investigation produces a clear account of the timing and what it implies for how sensitive information is handled around poll releases.