Fed’s Waller Backs December Hike, Open to 50 Basis Points

Waller's explicit conditionality — tying a 50bp move to an October core CPI threshold while pre-committing to a 25bp hike even if inflation cools — is the notable part, since it narrows the Fed's December decision to a single data print rather than an open debate. His emphasis on inflation breadth and stronger energy pass-through signals concern is shifting from headline levels to how widely price pressure has spread, which matters more for how long tightening persists than for any single meeting. For risk assets, the near-certainty of some December move is already the baseline; the open question is whether the CPI print lands above or below his trigger.