Fed’s Waller: October CPI up 0.3% MoM would show inflation off target, warrant more aggressive action

Waller's framing is notable less for the CPI threshold itself than for the admission that policy is far less restrictive than he previously thought, and that real rates must rise to hold the current stance. That reframes the debate from when cuts begin to whether rates need to go higher, a shift that matters for any rate-sensitive market, including crypto and tokenized real-world assets that trade off the same duration and liquidity backdrop. His skepticism on near-term AI productivity gains also undercuts a popular disinflation narrative. Whether other Fed voices adopt the same 'less restrictive than thought' language is the open question.