Fed’s Paulson: Core Inflation at 2.5%-3%, More Work Needed

The signal here is less about the inflation range itself than about the framing: a 2026 voter describing the labor market as solid while inflation sits above target leaves little room for the dovish case, and the explicit "more work to do" language reinforces that. Paulson's admission that AI and energy effects are hard to assess effectively pre-commits to data-dependence rather than a clear path, which matters for anyone pricing the 2026 policy trajectory. Whether other 2026 voters echo this hesitation on AI's inflation channel is the open question worth tracking.