TREE NEWS reports: CME FedWatch data on November 11 put the probability of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December at 88.5%, with an 11.5% chance of a 50bp move and 0% odds of holding rates steady. For the January meeting, the probability of a cumulative 50bp of hikes rose to 59.2% from 21.3% a day earlier, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp fell to 33.6% from 66.9%.
CME FedWatch: 88.5% odds of 25bp Fed hike in December
AI take
The striking detail is not the December consensus but the one-day repricing of January: the market's odds of cumulative tightening doubling in a single session suggests positioning is being rebuilt around a faster path, not just a single move. That matters for anyone holding duration-sensitive exposure, from rate-linked crypto narratives to RWA yield products priced off the front end. Whether that January shift holds over the coming sessions, or fades as it has after past FedWatch spikes, is the open question worth watching.
Generated by AI for reference only.
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