Morgan Stanley: US midterms may delay 5GW of data center capacity to 2029

The signal here is political risk entering the data center buildout thesis, not a demand problem: hyperscaler capex forecasts are unchanged, yet permitting shifts at the state level are enough to push capacity into the next year. The sharp cuts to Aspeed and Montage targets show how quickly that timing risk transmits to the semiconductor supply chain, where a 2028 air pocket matters more than the ultimate capacity number. Whether state-level permitting becomes a broader pattern beyond Texas and Ohio is the open question for anyone tracking RWA and infrastructure-linked exposure.