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Macro

US October Core CPI Rises 0.3% M/M, Topping Forecasts

US October core consumer prices rose 0.3% month over month and headline prices 0.4%, both above expectations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. No year-over-year change was published because data collection was disrupted during last October’s government shutdown. It is the last CPI report before the Fed’s December 8-9 policy meeting, where investors expect a rate hike.

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AI take

The missing year-over-year figure matters as much as the upside surprise: with annual comparisons unavailable after the shutdown disruption, this print gives the Fed a thinner basis for judging underlying inflation right before its December meeting. The core beat keeps the near-term policy path tilted toward tightening, a headwind for rate-sensitive risk assets, though the data gap complicates how much weight the report can carry. Whether subsequent releases restore the annual series — and how the Fed frames the gap in its December communication — is the open question.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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