Treasury selloff may extend, 10-year yield seen topping 5%

The signal here comes from derivatives, not cash trading, which makes the yield call a positioning read rather than a confirmed move — the reopening of cash Treasuries is the real test. A hot inflation print hardening rate-hike expectations matters well beyond rates desks: it feeds the discount rate applied to risk assets, including tokenized Treasury products and other yield-bearing RWA instruments whose appeal rests on the rate backdrop. Whether the futures-implied move above 5% is realized in cash trading, and whether the inflation surprise proves sticky rather than one print, is the open question.