Man Group’s Rowe Warns of US Stagflation, Sees 10-Year Treasury Yield at 5.5%

The significance here is that a stagflation call is being paired with a specific long-end yield target, which matters more for duration-sensitive assets than for equities alone. The cited drivers — an oil shock, tariffs and AI capex — are supply-side and cost-push forces that central banks cannot easily offset, so the debate shifts from rate cuts to term premium. Whether the 10-year actually tests that level, and how real yields versus breakevens split the move, is the open question worth watching.