XP Strategist: US Jobs Data Confirms CPI as Key Metric

This framing shifts market focus from payrolls to inflation as the true policy trigger. The implication is that labor data, while watched, now serves mainly to validate the CPI narrative rather than move the Fed independently. For rate-sensitive assets, the near-term risk is compressed until the next inflation print, with volatility expected to stay contained. The open question is whether disinflation momentum holds enough to lock in a pause, or if a surprise in core prices reopens the tightening path—making CPI the sole catalyst to watch.