Yen traders eye 100 per dollar as extreme but possible

The framing of 100 per dollar as 'extreme but possible' signals that the yen's current strength is not just a cyclical blip but part of a broader structural reassessment. The conditionality—both dollar and yen factors aligning—underscores that this is a two-sided trade, not a one-way bet. For FX markets, the significance is that tail-risk scenarios are gaining enough traction to be priced as optionality, which can itself influence positioning and volatility. The open question is whether the macro backdrop shifts enough to turn this from a tail risk into a base case, or if the yen's rally stalls before that point.