Iran Warns of Response if IAEA Board Passes Resolution

The threat of a resolution-driven escalation reintroduces a familiar geopolitical variable into the market's risk calculus, particularly for energy and commodity-linked assets. The IAEA's insistence on continued technical work suggests a potential buffer, but the real signal lies in whether Tehran's 'necessary measures' translate into reduced cooperation or expanded enrichment activity. For watchers, the open question is how swiftly diplomatic friction shifts from rhetoric to operational changes that could tighten supply expectations. A muted response would likely keep the premium contained; a concrete step could reprice geopolitical risk across the board. This is less about the resolution itself and more about the credibility of follow-through on both sides.