BOJ Ex-Economist: Market Pricing of BOJ Hikes Too High

This signals a potential disconnect between market pricing and central bank reality, which could drive volatility in yen and JGB markets. The critique from an ex-BOJ economist suggests the market may be overestimating hawkishness, and any disappointment could lead to sharp yen depreciation. What matters next is whether other voices or data corroborate this view, as that would test the sustainability of current rate hike bets. The open question is whether market expectations adjust gradually or abruptly, which would shape positioning across rate-sensitive assets.