Traders Bet on 4 ECB, BOE Hikes as Oil Adds to Inflation

This signals a meaningful shift in market sentiment, as traders now expect central banks to prioritize inflation containment over growth support, driven by energy-driven price pressures. The pricing of up to four hikes suggests conviction that oil's impact will be persistent, not transitory, which could tighten financial conditions across Europe and the UK. The key watchpoint is whether actual policy follows these market bets, especially if energy prices stabilize or reverse, which would likely prompt a rapid repricing of these expectations.