ECB’s Lagarde: 25bp Rate Hike Holds Up Across All Three Scenarios

Lagarde's framing matters less for the size of the move than for the method: by testing one decision against three energy-driven scenarios, the ECB is signalling that policy is being set for robustness rather than for a single forecast. That shifts the burden of proof onto incoming energy data, since the scenarios themselves are the justification. The open question is whether the ECB keeps applying this scenario framework to future meetings, or treats it as a one-off device for this hike.