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US August PPI Rises 5.4% YoY, Market Fully Prices an October Fed Hike

US August PPI came in at 5.4% year-on-year, above the 5.3% consensus, while core PPI rose 0.2% month-on-month against an expected 0.3%, sending mixed signals as Fed officials debate next week’s rate decision. After the release, markets fully priced in a Fed hike in October. The report lands a day before the latest CPI data, with some officials suggesting the September 15-16 meeting’s decision may hinge on this week’s figures.

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AI take

The split between a hotter headline and a softer core reading is the real story here: it gives both hawks and doves on the Fed something to point to, which is why the market's move to fully price an October hike looks more like a positioning adjustment than a clean signal. The September meeting's outcome now effectively rides on the CPI print landing a day later, so the near-term path for risk assets, including crypto and tokenized real-world assets, hinges on a single data release rather than on any change in fundamentals. Whether the October hike stays fully priced after that CPI number is the open question.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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