Brazil poll: Flavio Bolsonaro ties Lula at 46% as Supreme Court crisis weighs

The collapse of Lula's polling cushion coincides with a Supreme Court crisis, suggesting institutional risk is now pricing into Brazil's political outlook rather than the incumbent's own record alone. That matters for anyone holding Brazilian exposure, since a tighter race raises the odds of policy discontinuity after the vote. Whether Flavio Bolsonaro can hold this position once the court story evolves is the open question.