China Treasury Futures Open Lower; 30-Year Contract Down 0.09%

The split between the long end and the belly is the signal worth noting: the 30-year contract is doing all the work on the downside while the 5-year and 2-year sit flat, which points to pressure at the duration extreme rather than a broad repricing of the curve. That distinction matters because long-end futures are where growth and inflation expectations, and increasingly foreign demand, get expressed. Whether the 30-year continues to lead and the shorter tenors stay pinned is the open question.