US August CPI Due Friday 20:30 Beijing Time, Fed Rate Hike Odds at 70%

The gap between the expected headline and core readings is the real signal here: energy or food noise pushing the top line while underlying inflation cools would complicate the Fed's decision more than a uniformly hot print. With rate-hike odds already elevated, the market has largely priced a September move, so the surprise risk is asymmetric — a soft core could unwind those bets faster than a strong one reinforces them. Whether the Fed treats a single month's data as decisive is the open question, and crypto and RWA markets remain levered to that read.