US August CPI Due Friday, Fed Rate Hike Odds at 70%

The gap between a 3.4% headline and a 2.4% core expectation is the real story here: it suggests the Fed's dilemma is an energy-driven headline rather than broad underlying pressure, which is why a hike is still priced as the base case. For crypto and RWA markets, the operative channel is the dollar and real yields into the September decision, not the CPI print itself. Whether the core reading holds near target while headline stays elevated is the open question, since that combination keeps the hike odds alive without resolving the policy path.