TD Securities Flips Call, Now Sees Three Fed Rate Hikes Starting September

The significance here is less the call itself than the speed of the reversal: a single hot CPI print was enough to move a house view from no change through 2026 to a three-hike cycle, which says the market's reaction function is now highly sensitive to inflation surprises. The dot plot's hawkish lean matters for rate-sensitive corners of crypto, where the marginal bid has tracked easing expectations. Whether other desks follow TD — or treat August CPI as noise — is the open question, with October and January now the dates framing the debate.