Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin Could Hit New High by Year-End on Yen Reflow, AI Capital Misallocation

Hayes is framing the next leg as a liquidity story rather than a crypto-native one, tying bitcoin's path to yen carry-trade unwinds and the funding strain AI capex imposes on dollar markets. That shifts the relevant signal set for crypto watchers toward FX crosses like EUR/JPY and Fed liquidity conditions, not on-chain or ETF flows. The notable disclosure is Maelstrom's larger ether weighting, implying the fund expects ETH to carry more beta in a broad liquidity rally. Whether EUR/JPY actually leads and whether the Fed responds as he expects remain the open questions.