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Macro US Stocks

JPMorgan: S&P 500 Valuation Can Withstand 10-Year Yield of 5%-6%

JPMorgan said in a Sept. 14 report that the 10-year Treasury yield threshold at which rate rises begin to compress S&P 500 valuations is roughly 5% to 6%, not the current level. The 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to about 5.40%, a near 20-year high, yet US equities are still up about 16%. The team said earnings growth, not yields alone, sets the valuation ceiling.

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AI take

JPMorgan's framing shifts the debate from yield levels to earnings durability: if the valuation ceiling sits well above current rates, the recent climb in long-end yields need not be read as an equity headwind on its own. That matters for anyone treating rate moves as a simple risk-off trigger, since the bank's threshold implies the current backup is not yet the binding constraint. The open question is whether earnings growth can keep validating that headroom if yields continue rising.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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