Mizuho: 10-Year Treasury Yield Unlikely to Rise Much Further

The strategist's argument rests on carry demand capping yields, which matters for risk assets because it implies the Treasury selloff may be nearing a natural brake rather than accelerating. The tariff-inflation channel is the key link: if tariff effects genuinely fade, the Fed's room to cut widens, but that same logic means the Fed's path is conditional on trade policy outcomes. The open question is whether demand actually materializes at these yield levels, or whether supply and fiscal concerns override carry — a test that will show up in auction demand rather than in strategist forecasts.