Bond Traders Price 90% Odds of Fed Rate Hike Wednesday

The signal here is less about the hike itself than about how little uncertainty is left in it: a market-implied probability this high has, per the cited record, never been wrong. That matters because the residual risk sits almost entirely in the statement and guidance rather than the decision, where any deviation from a hawkish framing would be the genuine surprise. The open question is whether this degree of consensus becomes a source of fragility, since positioning built on near-certainty leaves little room for a repricing if the accompanying language softens.