Fed Rate Decision, US Retail Sales and UK CPI Headline Wednesday’s Calendar

The sequencing matters more than any single print: UK inflation and euro-area output land well before US retail sales, so European data sets the tone into the Fed's decision and dot plot. The inclusion of a Warsh press conference alongside the projections raises the bar for guidance risk, since markets will parse the statement and dots against his framing. Whether the dot plot and retail sales point the same direction is the open question.