KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk: This Is the Start of a Fed Rate-Hike Cycle

The notable element is the framing shift: calling this the start of a hiking cycle, rather than a pause or a peak, changes how every duration-sensitive market prices forward risk. Swonk's point that resilience does not resonate with households matters because it implies the Fed may be tightening into a cost-of-living squeeze rather than a broadly shared boom, a harder political and macro backdrop than headline growth suggests. Whether other Fed watchers adopt the "cycle" language, and whether supply- and demand-side shocks persist, is the open question.