Peru Central Bank: El Niño to Cut 2025 GDP Growth by 0.99 Percentage Points

This is a rare case of a central bank putting a hard number on climate risk, which matters for anyone pricing Peruvian sovereign or corporate exposure. The hit lands on agriculture, fishing and infrastructure — the sectors most tied to weather patterns — and could complicate fiscal and monetary assumptions already baked into 2025 forecasts. The open question is whether this estimate gets revised as the pattern evolves, and whether it feeds into the central bank's own policy calculus.