Trump Blames Diesel Spike on Russia-Ukraine, Data Shows Iran War Cut Supply More

The gap between the political framing and the trade data matters more than the diesel price itself: the supply loss attributed to the Iran conflict is roughly double the Russian figure, so the market's read on where barrels went missing diverges from the official narrative. That divergence affects refiners and fuel buyers who price off physical flows rather than statements, and it complicates any policy response premised on the Russia-Ukraine channel. Whether the estimates hold as more tanker and output data arrive is the open question.