Fed Raises Rates 25bps to 3.75%-4.00%, First Hike in Three Years

The unanimous vote and the dot plot's signal of another hike this year matter more than the 25bp move itself: they suggest the committee is not treating this as a one-off. The cross-asset reaction—dollar strength, bear-flattening, simultaneous declines in stocks and gold—points to tighter financial conditions being priced in broadly rather than a rotation between risk assets. The open question is whether the roughly even market odds for an October move firm up or fade, since that split implies limited consensus about the pace ahead.