China’s Restricted-Share Transfer Income Tax Up 59.7% in First Eight Months

The outsized gain in restricted-share transfer tax points to a wave of lock-up expiries being monetised into a rising market, rather than to any change in the tax rules themselves. That distinction matters: it is a lagging indicator of realised gains by pre-IPO holders, not a signal about future supply. The gap between securities-related revenue and the slower insurance and broader financial sectors also shows where activity has concentrated. Whether that realisation pace continues as lock-ups roll off is the open question.