Trump Says He Is at a Decision Point on Iran, Warns ‘They Better Restrain Themselves’

The signal here is ambiguity, not escalation or de-escalation: a stated decision point, a warning, and openness to a meeting are being delivered in the same breath. That combination matters most for oil and shipping risk premia, which price Gulf disruption scenarios, and for crypto, where geopolitical stress has tended to cut both ways — sharp risk-off moves followed by demand for non-sovereign assets. The open question is whether the rhetoric hardens into policy or stays at the level of signaling, since that distinction is what markets can actually trade around.