Omdia: Global Smartphone Market to Shrink 12% in 2026 as Value Rises to $651.6B

The divergence between shrinking unit volumes and rising market value marks a structural shift rather than a cyclical dip: vendors are being pushed upmarket, where margins are thicker but addressable demand is narrower. The sharp contraction in sub-$200 devices matters most for emerging-market access, since that tier has historically been the entry point for first-time smartphone users. Whether the premium mix keeps expanding fast enough to offset lost volume is the open question, and it hinges on whether affordability at the low end erodes further or stabilizes.