SOFR Options Trade Bets on Only One Fed Rate Hike This Year

The structure's expiry between the two policy meetings makes it a pure bet on the path rather than any single decision, so its value hinges on whether the Fed delivers one hike and then holds. That places the trade in direct tension with swap pricing, which currently assigns more tightening than the position can tolerate. The signal worth tracking is whether this dovish curve view attracts followers or remains an outlier as the October meeting approaches.