TREE NEWS reports: Barclays Capital’s head of US rates research, Anshul Pradhan, wrote that the 30-year US Treasury yield has room to rise to 6%, because this month’s bond selloff has not priced in the risk of persistently faster productivity growth. The market still assumes the currently elevated neutral rate will prove cyclical rather than structural, he said. A key challenge to that view is rising economic productivity, with US tech giants expected to spend as much on AI infrastructure this year as in the past three years combined.
Barclays: 30-Year US Treasury Yield Could Reach 6% on Faster Productivity
AI take
The argument here is structural, not cyclical: if AI-driven productivity gains prove durable, the neutral rate stays higher for longer and long-end yields have further to adjust. That matters most for duration-sensitive borrowers and for any RWA or crypto instrument priced off the long end of the US curve. The open question is whether the productivity story shows up in hard data before the market is forced to reprice, or whether the current cyclical interpretation holds.
Generated by AI for reference only.
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