Global Government Bonds Head for Worst Quarter Since 2024 on Inflation Fears

The signal here is correlation, not just direction: an oil-driven inflation impulse is repricing the long end of the curve far harder than the front, which is the classic term-premium response rather than a simple rate-expectations move. That matters for every duration-sensitive balance sheet, from sovereign issuers to the crypto and RWA products that increasingly benchmark funding costs against Treasuries. Whether the 30-year stays elevated as oil holds is the open question; a sustained long-end repricing would keep risk appetite and collateral values under pressure across both traditional and tokenized markets.