TREE NEWS reports: The Mexican peso has fallen nearly 6% this month, underperforming every currency tracked by Bloomberg over the past month, as the Federal Reserve raised rates while Mexico’s central bank held steady. Societe Generale, Morgan Stanley and Banco Base have all cut their year-end forecasts for the peso, with one strategist saying the “carry trade party is over” and the peso’s “carry story is losing its appeal.”
Mexican Peso Becomes World’s Worst-Performing Major Currency as Carry Traders Exit
This is a carry-trade unwind story, not a Mexico story: the peso's slide reflects a narrowing rate differential as the Fed moves while Banxico stays put, and the fact that major banks are cutting forecasts signals the move is being treated as structural rather than a blip. The pain lands on carry traders who had crowded into the peso for its yield, and on Mexican importers facing higher costs. Whether Banxico eventually follows the Fed — or holds to protect growth — is the open question that determines if this reverses or extends.
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