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Citadel Securities: Rising US Treasury Yields Reflect Strong Economy, Not Inflation Fears

Citadel Securities attributes the recent climb in US Treasury yields to strong economic growth and intensifying competition for capital, not heightened inflation worries. Nohshad Shah, the firm’s head of fixed income sales for EMEA, wrote in a Monday client note that nearly all of the rise in the 10-year Treasury yield in September came from real yields, while inflation expectations stayed relatively stable. Real yields are being supported by fiscal easing, loose financial conditions and heavy investment in artificial intelligence, he said.

Original source

AI take

The real-yield decomposition matters for crypto and other long-duration risk assets, because it reframes the yield move as a growth-and-competition story rather than a stagflation one. If AI-driven investment and fiscal easing keep lifting real yields, the pressure on tokens and other non-yielding assets comes from a rising opportunity cost, not from inflation hedging demand. Whether inflation expectations stay anchored as real yields grind higher is the open question.

Generated by AI for reference only.

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