Goldman Sachs: Diesel to Stay Elevated Through 2027 on Refining Constraints

The notable point is that the elevated diesel call rests on supply-side rigidity, not demand strength: refining capacity is the binding constraint, so the adjustment mechanism becomes demand destruction rather than new output. That framing matters for anyone watching the diesel crack relative to crude, since it implies the market clears through consumption rather than added supply. Whether governments and companies actually complete their inventory rebuild, and whether refining capacity loosens before then, is the open question.