Midterm Years Show S&P 500 Average 9.2% Gain, J.P. Morgan Data Shows

The interesting detail here is the framing, not the averages: the cited strategist locates the market effect in pre-election uncertainty rather than the outcome itself, which suggests the historical midterm pattern is being read as a volatility-timing story rather than a partisan one. That distinction matters for how readers weigh the two datasets, since the post-election figures cover a different window and sample than the midterm-year figures. Whether the uncertainty narrative holds once the vote passes is the open question.