TREE NEWS reports: With the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3 just over a month away, J.P. Morgan Asset Management data shows the S&P 500 has averaged a 9.2% gain in midterm years since 1937, versus 13.3% in other years. Capital Group data shows the index rose an average 15.4% in the 12 months after midterm elections since 1950. Strategist James Zahansky said the election’s real market impact is pre-election uncertainty, not which party wins.
Midterm Years Show S&P 500 Average 9.2% Gain, J.P. Morgan Data Shows
The interesting detail here is the framing, not the averages: the cited strategist locates the market effect in pre-election uncertainty rather than the outcome itself, which suggests the historical midterm pattern is being read as a volatility-timing story rather than a partisan one. That distinction matters for how readers weigh the two datasets, since the post-election figures cover a different window and sample than the midterm-year figures. Whether the uncertainty narrative holds once the vote passes is the open question.
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