Fed survey: US one-year consumer inflation expectations hit 3.9%, highest since May 2023

The striking detail is the divergence: the one-year gauge jumped while the five-year held steady, suggesting households read this as a near-term shock rather than a lasting regime shift. That matters because short-run expectations feed wage demands and spending plans, and the projected spending growth alongside rent, medical and college cost expectations points to services and shelter as the persistent pressure points. Whether the one-year measure keeps climbing toward the longer-horizon anchors, or reverts, is the open question for the rate path.